top of page

The political landscape a year from the 2025 election

27 May 2024

Twelve months out from the next election, a minority federal government is a live possibility

According to an exclusive Multilevel Regression with Post-stratification (MRP) poll conducted by Accent Research and the RedBridge Group, a hung parliament and a Labor majority are almost equally likely outcome.

There is essentially zero probability at this stage the Liberal-National Coalition will win more seats than Labor.

Key findings:

  • Labor is losing primary votes, particularly in the outer suburbs and regional centres, while the Coalition has gained small primary vote swings everywhere, except rural electorates.

  • This is not necessarily resulting in major seat gains for the Coalition in the House of Representatives, though, nor major losses for the Labor Party.

  • While the Coalition is within striking distance of some outer suburban and regional seats held by Labor, such as Robertson, Gilmore and Lyons, they do not appear to be winning back the seats they lost at the last election. Additionally, Labor is competitive in some Liberal-held seats, such as Menzies and Deakin in suburban Melbourne. This electoral geography makes it very difficult for the Coalition to regain government, or even look competitive.

  • Using current electorate boundaries, a Labor government is the most likely outcome. However, a minority Labor government is almost as likely as a Labor majority, according to this model.

  • Based on these results, there is almost no chance that the Coalition will win more seats than Labor and be the largest party in parliament if an election were held during the period in which the fieldwork for this survey was conducted.

The full results, and details on the methodology, are available below.

Accent-RedBridge MRP---May-2024---for-web
Download PDF • 19.42MB

bottom of page