Australia’s political landscape: 2025

• Resurgent support for the Labor Party is resulting in it stemming what had looked like losses in late 2024. If an election was held when the fieldwork for this survey was conducted, it is estimated that Labor would have won between 67 and 78 seats, and it would have had a 96 per cent chance of being the largest party in the House of Representatives.

• Conversely, the Coalition parties were predicted to be winning between 56 and 69 seats, giving them a four per cent chance of winning the largest share in parliament.

• While the Coalition does look likely to win seats off Labor, it is also at risk of losing at least two in return: Sturt and Bass. Additionally, rural and regional Coalition seats look at risk to independents: Cowper, Monash and Calare. Somewhat offsetting these losses, the Coalition also looks competitive in Kooyong, Goldstein and Brisbane. However, the chances of winning back additional seats lost to the crossbench in 2022 looks slim at the moment.

• The crossbench still looks to remain similar in size, or to shrink slightly. The Greens are estimated to be on track to win between two and four seats. For all other parties and candidates, the range of seats won is estimated to be between nine and 14.

• As a result, minority government currently remains the more likely outcome. However, it should be noted this model is a snapshot of vote intention at a point in time. These data were mostly collected in March, with more recent fieldwork suggesting ongoing improvement in Labor’s vote and decline in support for the Coalition. Therefore, this result should be seen as conservative for Labor and optimistic for the Coalition; but future shifts in public opinion could change the results.

About this research

• These results are estimates from a model-based approach called Multilevel Regression with Post-stratification (MRP), fit to data from a survey of 9,953 Australian voters conducted between 3 February and 1 April, 2025 (with most of the data collected in March). The mean electorate-level margin of error (95 per cent confidence intervals) are 6.9 per cent for the Coalition, 5.7 per cent for Labor, 4 per cent for the Greens and 7.3 per cent for all other parties and candidates.

• The MRP works by sharing information across electorates, with voters assumed to behave in a related way to other voters with shared characteristics in similar divisions. While we expect the model to be broadly accurate, these estimates may miss idiosyncratic electorates that behave substantially differently from similar divisions.

• Estimates are based on the finalised electoral boundaries for NSW, VIC, WA and the NT.

Read the full report here: