A fragmented electorate

This is predicted to result in between 70 and 82 seats for Labor (with a median prediction of 76 seats), 46 and 59 seats for One Nation (median 53), seven and 21 seats for the Coalition (median 12), five and nine Independents (median eight) and between zero and one seat each for the Greens, KAP and Centre Alliance.

In total, 62 seats are predicted to change hands based on these results. The Coalition is estimated to be at risk of losing 37 seats to One Nation and Labor a further 16, accounting for the bulk of those expected to change hands.

The extent of the predicted Coalition collapse is so large that it is estimated the Coalition parties will not win any seats in Queensland, Western Australia, South Australia or Tasmania.

Our results also indicate that the next election will be decided overwhelmingly on preferences. In seat after seat, the Coalition is predicted to fall to third place in seats it has traditionally held, either on primary votes or pushed to third by Labor on Greens preferences, with Labor then losing to One Nation (usually on Coalition preferences).

A Coalition primary vote that was just a few points higher would win considerably more seats. The seat of Latrobe is a good example of this. Currently, we estimate that the Liberal Party is coming third in the seat at 26 per cent (within the margin of error of Labor, which is on 27 per cent). In median prediction, Greens preferences ensure that Labor reaches the two-candidate preferred, and then loses to One Nation. However, in six per cent of our simulated predictions, the Liberal Party overtakes One Nation, and facing Labor, would win the seat.

The results presented in this report should be viewed as a probabilistic snapshot of current public opinion. They are an estimate of current partisan support and how this translates into seats in the Australian House of Representatives. They are not a prediction of what will happen in two years’ time. Public opinion is dynamic, and, as seen in the last few years with the Voice and the 2025 federal election, it can change rapidly.

Read the full report here: